Attacking it would be the same as attacking the White House.Ĭonversely, a mishap by North Korean generals with missiles pointed at Guam – or a misjudgment of missile tests toward Japan – could see Trump’s “fire and fury” unleashed on North Korea. Guam is stratospherically strategically important. With this flow of money stagnating – and the world allied against Kim Jong Un – the North Korean leader may feel he has no option but to shoot his way out.

North Korea is desperately poor and relies heavily on its trade with China. Paradoxically, further UN sanctions might make the situation worse. He should be encouraged that both nations have supported the UN resolution on sanctions thus far.Ī Security Council resolution could prevent this crisis escalating to a global nuclear conflict if Russia and China are on the side of the United Nations in demanding North Korea is rid of nuclear weapons.ĭisappointingly, the Security Council has been inept in resolving the Syrian crisis, so I do not hold out any great hopes for a coming together over this – unless the council’s permanent members, also known as the Permanent Five, lead the way.Īnd pleasingly, there appear to be fewer conflicts among the P5 countries over North Korea than with Syria. In theory, if he needed to, Trump would be able to attack North Korea in order to prevent an attack on American soil – or, in a worst-case scenario, in response to an attack – he would be covered by UN Article 51.īut by seeking a Security Council resolution, Trump may encourage China and Russia – both of whom are more likely to have a constructive dialogue with the North Koreans – to get more involved in the diplomatic process. Otherwise, we could be in for a whole heap of trouble. Therefore, this brief pause presents an opportunity for Trump to get the backing of the Security Council, in particular its five permanent members – the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China – to neutralize North Korea’s nuclear capability. My guess would be that this disaster scenario is far from over. In deference to this, Kim Jong Un appears be walking back on his threat to attack the US territory of Guam – then again, he does change with the wind. President Donald Trump is being his usual bellicose self. I have recently returned from a trip to the United States and Australia, where the reaction and coverage of the North Korean missile crisis is very different from what we are seeing in Europe – where politicians in the United Kingdom and Brussels are unable to deal with anything other than arguing about Brexit. Top US general: Drills with South Korea are not up for negotiation (Photo by Jung Yeon-Je-Pool/Getty Images) Pool/Getty Images AsiaPac/Getty Images SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - AUGUST 17: South Korean President Moon Jae-in speaks during a press conference marking his first 100 days in office at the presidential blue house on Augin Seoul, South Korea.

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